Von Miller and Deshaun Watson: Deadline Dos and Don’ts

Von Miller and Deshaun Watson: Deadline Dos and Don’ts Mike Tanier 03 Nov 2021, 09:50 am

Denver Broncos ER Von Miller

Here is some # Analysis you can only get from Football Outsiders: with the purchasing of Von Miller, the Los Angeles Rams are all-in to win Super Bowl LVI!

Oh, you thought they were “all in” when they traded for Matthew Stafford, burning draft picks and feeing a fat gristly hunk of Jared Goff’s salary in the process? They only pushed all of their microchips into the middle of the poker table with that busines. Now there’s the deed to the ranch, the name to a pickup truck, one of Sean McVay’s kidneys, and a litter of golden retriever puppies in the kitty-cat. The Rams are all all all all in.

It’s hard to criticize the Miller trade for the Rams without seeming like the type of person who writes editorials about how twenty-somethings should deny themselves avocado toast so they can save for a mortgage. Win Now mode is completely legitimate when you are 7-1 and loaded with proved hotshots. The marginal increase between an overall DVOA around 31% and 35% — the difference that locks in home-field advantage throughout the playoffs or supports an edge against Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady–is incredibly difficult to attain, and it’s worth the marginal declined by potential DVOA the Rams will suffer down the road after they spend the first two days of the 2022 draft partying at one of those music celebrations that ends up the subject of a Hulu documentary.

As for the Broncos, this is where six years of halfhearted rebuilding gets you. They entered the season as wild-card challengers, and a mushy planned, the recent decline of the Chargers, and the inevitable upcoming Raiders track correction could have helped the Broncos climb into something resembling contention. But Miller’s departure nerfs their protection, cheats the franchise of its face, and signals both an unavoidable 2021 surrender and the likely end of the Vic Fangio era.

Miller’s departure therefore seems that George Paton now has full control of football operations; John Elway would have interpreted Sunday’s win over Washington as a sign that the Broncos were turning the corner. In the long term, Paton’s arrival and ascendance may prove to be a very good thing. In the short term, nonetheless, it’s a disappointing “let’s start the rebuild that we should have started in 2016 ” thing.

Let’s examine some other developments in all regions of the commerce deadline.

Kansas City Chiefs acquire Melvin Ingram from the Pittsburgh Steelers It clangs as though the design is to use both Frank Clark and Incrementally More Motivated Frank Clark( a.k.a. Ingram) in a NASCAR-type package on occur downs, and to slip Chris Jones back inside to pick up the articles of the running defense after expend much of this season as an edge. That programme ought to have been sounded much more exciting in August. Now, it’s like adding a spoiler to an old-time PT Cruiser.

Titans sign Adrian Peterson to supplant Derrick Henry Peterson will 😛 TAGEND

Produce a few cases 10 -carry-for-8-yard games, including one against the Saints in two weeks. Grow one stunning 163 -yard, two-touchdown game, probably against the Texans in three weeks. Expend the remainder of the season rushing for about 45 gardens per play while broadcasters gush about the leadership he is providing a team which never appeared to be lacking in leadership before he arrived.

The Titans will then lose during the first round of the playoffs, which is what they would have done with Henry anyway.

Deshaun Watson commerce never develops The Dolphins shaped the privilege move by not making a move here: better to try to salvage Tua Tagovailoa by conventional entails( superseding Heckle and/ or Jeckle with one real offensive coordinator) than mortgage whatever future they may have in pursuit of potential vaporware.

The prevailing wisdom among those who try to make sense of the Texans is that the team plans to wait and see if Watson’s legal and league discipline outlook is rosier in the 2022 offseason. If so, presto! Bidders galore for his services!

Of course, there’s a chance Watson’s legal situation will be worse by then. Or similarly muddled. Both scenarios seem most likely than “he’s totally absolved and on the Commissioner’s Live Your Best Life List.” Watson also has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he can still exert some leverage if he decides he doesn’t want to play for, say, the Detroit Lions.

Most importantly: the Texans are a horrible crew that only expended a year of either Watson’s services or whomever/ whatever they would have received in a busines, and they did so due to a combination of procrastination and insular thinking , not some clever Moneyball tactic.

Time is a precious NFL resource. Waiting, realise, and stinking for multiple times constructs sense if the Texans are just some team that generates fiction stats or editorial topics to you. It shapes no sense to someone trying to sell tickets or jerseys, attract or motivate players, persuasion agents to work with you or tutors to work for you, or, heaven forbid, build a decent roster.

The Texans won’t have the “last laugh” if they trade Watson for three first-rounders next March. They’ll have another year of gross mismanagement from which to dig out from under, and another year of leaving their patrons with a nauseating appreciation in their mouths. They’ll likewise stick around with the harsh reality that the tribes that fouled up their last determined of big decisions will be the same tribes making such a next laid. Those things may be hard to quantify, but I can guarantee you they add up to more than a couple of draft picks.

Walkthrough Tank Watch: Washington Football Team

Every Wednesday, Walkthrough checks in on one of the NFL’s worst teams to determine what’s going wrong, what( if anything) is going right, and what( if anything) they can do to start heading in the right direction.

The Washington Football Team Story So Far: Washington entered the season as potential wild-card challengers with what was expected to be a top-quartile defense and adequate offense. They proved almost immediately to have a bottom-quartile defense and an injury-ravaged, insufficient offense.

Washington’s merely victories still further were tight wins over the Giants and Falcons, both former Tank Watch subjects. Week 8’s 17 -1 0 loss to the Broncos was a cavalcade of blocked field goals and miscarried fourth-down conversions.

What’s Going Wrong? A little bit of everything 😛 TAGEND

The back end of the defense has fallen apart. Washington protects the running well enough and can apply pressure, but they get picked apart if their front four cannot get home.

Chase Young has performed as well as an margin rusher with 1.5 sacks through eight plays can possibly perform.

Traumata to Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel, Brandon Scherff, and Ryan Fitzpatrick have nerfed the Washington offense.

Taylor Heinicke, like many career backup quarterbacks with a scattering of starter’s traits, started out somewhat impressively but seems a little bit worse each week.

The company is ruled by a attribute from a 1930 s pulp novel about a series of carnages in a creepy burlesque theater. While the off-field ramifications of what’s going on with Washington are a wee bit beyond the scope of Tank Watch, it’s safe to say that organization-wide unprofessionalism and mismanagement has been oozing onto the field for decades.

Is Anything Going Right? Much more than what is going right for, say, the Jaguars 😛 TAGEND

The front four remains stout. Washington grades eighth in run protection DVOA and ninth in pressure rate, per Pro Football Reference.

The 2021 draft class is promising. Linebacker Jamin Davis and cornerback Benjamin St-Juste look more like potential long-term answers than difficulties on the back-end defense. Offensive tackle Sam Cosmi played well in between a bumpy opening day and a Week 5 injury. Receiver Dyami Brown has had instants, and undrafted running back Jaret Patterson is now starting to see the field.

The special teams graded second in the tournament before Halloween Blocked Figgie Fest.

What Needs to Be Done? Again, let’s not feign we’re a crackerjack human resources development government ministries and instead pretend we’re a crackerjack front office and coaching staff.

Get Fitzpatrick Back: There’s a 3-yard discrepancy between Heinicke’s purposed air gardens and completed air gardens, which signifies he likes to throw deep but merely reliably connects when shedding short. Fitzpatrick is the amply evolved form of Heinicke: splash highlights, ingenuity in a disintegrating pocket , no consistency, tons of wacky mistakes. If he can return from his hip injury, Fitzpatrick can correct that air-yard discrepancy and prevent Washington’s offense from stalling so often.

Oh, and all you tankologists can eat lemons: losing on purpose won’t push Washington below teams such as the Lions or throw them in position to draft a nonexistent franchise quarterback next year, and is also profoundly stupid.

Straighten out the Landon Collins situation: Collins play around a box security/ Will linebacker/ slot corner role all time. It’s not all that different from his persona in the past or with the Giants, although he rarely lines up deep anymore. The Washington media has become haunted with Collins’ theoretical “move” to “linebacker; ” it feels like we have read six articles per week about Collins’ position change, casting it as some sort of mystery or contention.

Collins has lost a step, and Washington is on the hook for one of their typically zany contracts through at least 2022. Call Collins a security but use him in the age-old Thomas Davis role, make sure he never extends anyone faster than the typical No. 2 tight end without deep assistance, and shut the heck up about it.

Budget wisely: Washington’s long-term goal should be to keep their front four intact without overpaying them. Jonathan Allen is already under contract through 2025. Daron Payne and Montez Sweat are next in line for expansions, with Young waiting in the wings. Ron Rivera and Martin Mayhew need to get these linemen to the table early to lock them in at a dismis and line up the dollar values of these contracts just right so the team can start planning to allocate resources elsewhere.

Prepare for several years of iffy quarterback play: There is no long-term solution on the roster of experts or of the draft articles. The mind that Washington could “woo” Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers is ludicrous. Rivera needs to keep building a crew that can win with defense and skill-position playmakers, then hope he can find a version of Heinicke who can slam the broad side of a warehouse more frequently. In addition to building out from their front four, Washington should make itself a factory for Antonio Gibson-types, find their Deebo Samuel, and attempt to build their version of the 2019 49 ers.

How Bad is the Washington Football Team? They are better than the real flatliners but a notch below crews such as the Eagles or Panthers who showing a glint of inspiration now and then.

What’s Next? The bye, then the Buccaneers, then a relatively tough slate of games until an Eagles-Giants season finale. Washington will likely end up selecting about fifth to eighth overall in the 2022 draft.

TebowMania: 10 Years After

Throughout November( and perhaps beyond ), Walkthough will look back on what the fuck is up when Tim Tebow took the NFL and commonwealth by storm–and forced Football Outsiders to protect analytics against a tidal wave of magical reasoning — 10 years ago this week.

Dating the precise start of TebowMania is like date the precise start of the Renaissance. Such a complex culture phenomenon can not have one pinpoint date. But build no mistake: TebowMania was seeping during the first week of November in 2011.

Tebow conducted the Broncos to a win over the Miami Dolphins in his first start of the season On October 23. But that was a soft launch. The Broncos suffered a hideous 45 -1 0 beating at the hands of a strong Detroit Lions team on October 30, with Tebow suffering seven sacks. The play did not merit much commentary in that week’s Audibles at the Line :

Ben Muth: I know you can’t use stats when discussing Tim Tebow’s game, but 4-of-13 for 37 gardens at halftime pretty accurately describes his play. Or you could use 24 -3, which is the score at the half.

Vince Verhei: Early in the third quarter, the Broncos have given up more sackings( five) than they have completed passes( four ). They have two passing first downs and -7 net gardens through the air.

Oh, and Tebow has fumbled twice.

Ben Muth: On the final play-act of the third quarter Tebow moves for a first down. Notable because it was the Broncos first third-down conversion of the day.

Mike Tanier: There is something transcendant about a squad in the full house backfield while down 38 -3.

I misspelled “transcendent” at the time, and the mistake was saved for posterity, so I chose not to correct it here.

The Broncos overcame the Raiders 38 -2 4 the following week. The play was more notable at the time for being Carson Palmer’s Raiders debut than for anything Tebow-related. Tebow’s numbers were downright respectable: 10 -of-2 1 for 124 passing gardens and two touchdowns, 13 -1 08 rushing. The Audibles crowd again had little to say about the quarterback who was about to rewire all of our psyches 😛 TAGEND

Mike Tanier: Don’t look now, but Tim Tebow merely developed in partnership a swell drive, capped off by a strike of a touchdown pass.

Danny Tuccitto: Anyone have a guess at what Tebow’s Total QBR was this week? I’m setting the over-under at 85.

Rivers McCown: I know you have to play the threat of Tebow operating, but if that’s all it takes to get Willis McGahee to run for 163 yards on you, your squad has problems.

It sure sounds like the Football Outsiders gang didn’t encounter the storm clouds on the horizon. Or perhaps we were all only retaining appease and carried out under, or fulfilling our mandate to focus on the things we remembered actually mattered to analysis-minded football fans.

Over at the New York Times, on the other hand, my( distressingly wordy) remarks in the preview capsule for the Broncos-Lions game would prove prophetic 😛 TAGEND

Young quarterbacks have been winning “bottom-line” games since the dawn of N.F.L. history. In a “bottom-line” game, the youngster stumbles haplessly through the afternoon, then get bailed out by his teammates in a low-scoring victory. Coaches, television analysts, the authors and devotees then give empirical testify and shared sense several compound fractures in an effort to credit the quarterback for some intangible contribution. “Bottom line: he’s a winner, ” we often say, write or injure ourselves trying to believe.

Any inexperienced passer can have a bottom-line game, but simply Tim Tebow possesses the unique aptitudes to produce the greatest, most bottom-worthy bottom-line game in history. Few quarterbacks have searched worse for 54 times, then get more reinforcement from diving catches, onside kicks or foe incompetence, inducing as much cognitive dissonance among those who automatically equate succes with quarterbacking achievement. To top Sunday’s 18 -1 5 overtime attempt, Tebow must take the cracking and simply rolling the ball to Lions defenders this week, then wait for a comet shower to force the Lions to evacuate their bench and forfeited video games. With Tebow, anything is possible( except possibly three consecutive accurate pass ), and after their actions in the last two weeks, the Lions may have it coming.

I cannot remember what Lions “actions” I drawn attention to: they were coming off back-to-back loss, but it sounds like Ndamukong Suh was tossing opposing quarterbacks into woodchippers or such. Leave a comment if you remember.

Next Week in TebowMania: The gloom bursts thunder in our ears. We shout and no one seems to hear. And our brains explode with dark forebodings.

1

“Profoundly stupid”

As opposed to trying to be what clearly looks like a fluke( unsustainable )… SB losing 49 ers squad? Much more brilliant lol

Eitherway It’s past the trade deadline so the one thing the FO can really do is threw/ prevent people on IR. Not that a squad HAS be above the Lions but it does help( and is still technically possible,# 6 isn’t that far away ). Can ever find another blue chip high up for the future, doesnt have to be specifically a QB, even if they’re the most important.

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