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DVOA Week 4: Bills Move to No. 1 with Dominating Defense

October 7, 2021
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DVOA Week 4: Bills Move to No. 1 with Dominating Defense Aaron Schatz 05 Oct 2021, 04:06 pm

Mario Addison

We have a new No. 1 team in DVOA this week, the Buffalo Bills, and they are No. 1 in DVOA by a hefty boundary after putting up one of the biggest games in DVOA history with their 40 -0 shellacking of Davis Mills and the Houston Texans. There’s a crack of over 16 percentage points between Buffalo and our No. 2 team right now, the Dallas Cowboys. The undefeated Arizona Cardinals are right behind in third place, followed by Cleveland, the Los Angeles Rams, and Baltimore.

But the Bills are the large-hearted narrative, and we’ve got a lot of fun data to share about the incredible defensive performance they put together on Sunday. Right now, with the current opponent changes, the Bills come out with -1 34.4% defensive DVOA for Sunday’s win. That would be the best defensive performance in a single play ever measured by DVOA, going all the way back to 1983.

OK, you are probably thinking, but that’s simply with early-season opponent changes. Regular readers know that early in the season, we don’t do our foe changes at full strength. Right now, they just at 40% strength because we don’t truly know yet how good squads are. Certainly once the opposing adjustments are stronger, Buffalo’s rating for this game will be less impressive, right?

Don’t be so sure. The foe accommodation for playing against Houston may not be as strong as you think. Some of that is due to the specifics of how our structure employments. The opposing accommodation will be based on how Houston’s offense plays for the entire season, and that will include a few plays of Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. But Davis Mills likewise may not be as bad as he searched on Sunday. Houston’s pass offense DVOA was -2. 0% against Carolina the week before, far from the worst in the league.

I was curious what would happen to Buffalo’s defensive rating for this game with opponent changes at full strength, so I moved a organize of DVOA ratings to those used readjustments. And it turns out Buffalo’s defensive concert in this game falls from the best ever to … still the best ever, only by a smaller amount! Buffalo would be at -1 27.2% DVOA with full opposing changes. Here’s a look at the best single defensive games in DVOA history. I’m listing Buffalo’s rating with the full opposing adjustment, but of course that rating is subject to change over the course of the entire season as we gather more data on both Houston and Houston’s other defensive opponents.

Top Single Games by Defensive DVOA, 1983 -2 021

Team Year Week Opp Score Opp Off Rk Def DVOA

BUF 2021 4 HOU 40 -0 30 -1 27.2%

CLE1 1989 1 PIT 51 -0 24 -1 26.2%

BAL 2000 SB NYG 34 -7 8 -1 20.9%

Cavity 1999 1 CLE 43 -0 26 -1 20.9%

PHI 1991 3 DAL 24 -0 4 -1 16.0%

TEN 2000 17 DAL 31 -0 24 -1 14.6%

NYJ 2009 17 CIN 37 -0 19 -1 13.7%

BUF 2004 14 CLE 37 -7 27 -1 12.0%

CHI 1985 SB NE 46 -1 0 11 -1 06.1%

DEN 1999 6 GB 31 -1 0 11 -1 03.9%

NYJ 2010 17 BUF 38 -7 26 -1 02.7%

NE 2004 10 BUF 29 -6 21 -1 02.5%

Buffalo’s defensive performance might be even more impressive if we only look at pass defense DVOA, although it is no longer the best game ever assessed. Buffalo’s pass defense DVOA is -2 08.4% with the current opponent readjustments and would be -2 04.7% with full adversary readjustments. Mills has only just been 87 yards on 21 moves that included four interceptions. He had a fumble on a bag which Houston recovered, plus Jordan Akins fumbled after a reception. Buffalo’s pass defense DVOA for this game is actually better than what the New Orleans Saints put up last year when they played against a Denver team that “havent had” real quarterback!

Top Single Games by Pass Defense DVOA, 1983 -2 021

Team Year Week Opp Score Opp Pass

Off Rk Pass Def

DVOA Main QB Cmp Att Yds TD INT Sk

NE 2009 6 TEN 59 -0 17 -2 34.5% K.Collins 2 14 -7 0 2 0 NYJ 2009 17 CIN 37 -0 15 -2 07.5% C.Palmer/J.T.O’Sullivan 4 19 31 0 1 3 BUF 2021 4 HOU 40 -0 28 -2 04.7% D.Mills 11 21 87 0 4 3 NO 2020 12 Lair 31 -3 31 -2 00.9% K.Hinton 1 9 13 0 2 1 Vehicle 2010 5 CHI 23 -6( L) 26 -1 85.7% T.Collins 8 19 51 0 4 3 GB 1987 10 SEA 24 -1 3( L) 13 -1 83.3% D.Krieg 9 15 105 0 3 3 TEN 2000 17 DAL 31 -0 25 -1 81.5% A.Wright 5 20 35 0 2 4 GB 2006 17 CHI 26 -7 27 -1 76.6% B.Griese/R.Grossman 8 28 194 1 5 2 TB 2007 15 ATL 37 -3 26 -1 76.4% C.Redman 4 15 34 0 2 1 MIA 1983 4 KC 14 -6 12 -1 71.8% B.Kenney 10 22 105 0 4 3 PHI 1991 3 DAL 24 -0 4 -1 67.8% T.Aikman 11 25 112 0 3 11 DAL 2003 15 WAS 27 -0 19 -1 67.5% T.Hasselbeck 7 27 59 0 4 1

As an aside, we could also look at these stats from Houston’s perspective and get similar rosters, but today I wanted to concentrate on the Bills defense. It will be fun to see where this game stands from Houston’s perspective when we get to the end of its first year and we know how well Buffalo’s defense has played against other opponents.

Also, how crazy is it that two of the teams with the best pass defense ever recorded in a game lost those games?

Here’s another index. Buffalo’s defensive performance was so strong against Houston that the Bills likewise break into the list of the ten best overall games in DVOA history. Once again, the ratings I’m listing here are the ratings with full foe accommodations utilized, subject to change over the rest of the season.

Top Single Games by Total DVOA, 1983 -2 021

Team Year Week Opp Score Opp Rk Off Def ST Total

SF 1993 DIV NYG 44 -3 7 67.3% -78.2% 10.9% 156.4% NO 2020 9 TB 38 -3 2 50.2% -96.7% 6.7% 153.5% CLE1 1989 1 PIT 51 -0 20 15.7% -126.2% 9.2% 151.1% NYG 1986 DIV SF 49 -3 2 66.5% -73.0% 10.0% 149.4% WAS 1991 1 DET 45 -0 15 58.6% -67.7% 20.7% 147.1% PIT 1999 1 CLE 43 -0 31 20.6% -120.9% 5.5% 147.0% MIN 1987 WC NO 44 -1 0 2 15.7% -102.0% 27.1% 144.9% BUF 2021 4 HOU 40 -0 29 9.2% -127.2% 5.7% 142.1% WAS 1983 DIV LARM 51 -7 6 55.5% -59.7% 25.4% 140.7% DET 1983 13 PIT 45 -3 14 31.9% -77.0% 30.4% 139.4% CAR 2005 WC NYG 23 -0 10 34.8% -92.3% 11.7% 138.8% PHI 1994 5 SF 40 -8 3 60.8% -73.9% 3.8% 138.5% NE 2008 16 ARI 47 -7 21 40.9% -74.6% 22.6% 138.0% ATL 2002 12 CAR 41 -0 25 47.9% -91.5% -1. 8% 137.6% Automobile 2015 CCG ARI 49 -1 5 2 57.1% -65.3% 12.8% 135.1% BAL 2019 12 LAR 45 -6 12 67.4% -58.7% 8.8% 134.9% SEA 2012 14 ARI 58 -0 24 56.2% -63.0% 15.5% 134.7% NE 2004 10 BUF 29 -6 3 40.0% -102.5% -8. 5% 134.0% KC 2002 13 ARI 49 -0 31 49.1% -71.6% 12.5% 133.2% NE 2009 6 TEN 59 -0 22 58.0% -80.6% -5. 4% 133.2%

When you have a game this strong and it counts as one of only four games in the current sample, it’s no surprise to see the team involved moving into the No. 1 place in DVOA overall. The surprise is likely to be the route that Buffalo’s defense is so outplaying its offense so far this season. The Bills offense ranks simply 16 th in DVOA through four weeks, with positive ratings only in Weeks 3 and 4. Buffalo is second in the tournament in scoring because the defense keeps putting the offense in great field point. Buffalo starts its average offensive drive at the 35.9 -yard line, the best figure in the league by a signficant perimeter. The Bills are also second in the tournament with 46 offensive drives because the defense retains get them the ball back.

Although Week 4 was by far their best game, the Buffalo defense has been better than average in all four plays so far this season, and so they also have one of the most wonderful defenses ever tracked through four games of the season.

Best Defensive DVOA

Through 4 Games, 1983 -2 021

Year Team W-L DVOA 1984 CHI 3-1 -52.4% 2019 NE 4-0 -50.3% 2021 BUF 3-1 -49.4% 1997 SF 3-1 -46.8% 2008 BAL 2-2 -45.9% 2019 SF 4-0 -45.4% 1991 PHI 3-1 -42.6% 1996 GB 3-1 -40.3% 1985 DAL 3-1 -36.7% 1989 CLE1 3-1 -36.6% 2011 BAL 3-1 -36.1% 1991 NO 4-0 -36.0%

What’s most remarkable may not be how good the Buffalo defense has been through four games but how big the gap is between Buffalo and the rest of the tournament. Right now, the No. 2 protection in DVOA is New Orleans — surprising given that Daniel Jones produced the league in passing DYAR the coming week playing against the Saints. But the Saints were good enough in their first three games, specially against the Packers in Week 1, to still rank second in defensive DVOA. The Saints are at -1 8.4% defensive DVOA right now. This intends the gap between the Bills and the Saints is more than 30 percentage points! As you can probably imagine, this is the largest gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 protection ever recorded after four weeks of a season.

Largest Gap Between Top 2 Protections After Week 4, 1983 -2 021

Year No. 1 Def DVOA No. 2 Def DVOA Gap

2021 BUF -4 9.4% NO -1 8.4% 31.0% 1984 CHI -5 2.4% SEA -2 8.7% 23.7% 2003 TB -4 4.3% IND -2 1.4% 22.9% 1997 SF -4 6.8% STL -2 6.8% 20.0% 2008 BAL -4 9.2% TEN -3 2.8% 16.4%

Now, here’s the downside for Buffalo: we know that defensive concert tends to be more variable than offensive concert, and the influence of regression to the mean is stronger. If we want a reminder that great defensive concert doesn’t ever continue for the entire season, we only have to remember back to the New England Patriots of two years ago. It’s possible that our opposing adjustments only aren’t correcting enough for the value of playing against a series of young and/ or backup quarterbacks. It would be preferable for the Bills if their offense was ranked first and their protection was 16 th. Nonetheless, based on our preseason projections and how good their offense was last year, there’s a strong chance that the Buffalo offense will be better than this for the rest of the season. So even if the defense does is coming to earth — and it will — the Bills are still set up to be a top Super Bowl contender.

This all sets up for an awesome Sunday night game this weekend, because our best defense is going to be playing our best offense, the Kansas City Chiefs. Although the Chiefs’ offense is not quite as impressive as the Bills defense right now, it’s still very impressive. The Chiefs are No. 1 on offense at 41.1%, with no other offense above 30%. Kansas City has the 14 th-best offense we’ve ever tracked through four games. The question is that their protection is almost as bad as the offense is good, readily grading dead last-place still further this season.

How Good Is Arizona?

The Bills are also now No. 1 in our DAVE ratings which combination early-season DVOA with the preseason projections. Nonetheless, even after four weeks, the DAVE ratings are still 70% based on those preseason projections, so the next two teams are the two teams we had on top of our preseason forecast, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Arizona devotees might be annoyed to see the Cardinals down at No. 10 in DAVE even though they are the final unbeaten team in the NFL this season. Our preseason projection for the Cardinals had them as a league-average team, or close to it. How likely is it that we were totally wrong about them?

The ratio of DVOA to projection used in DAVE is based on looking at what rate best predicts DVOA over the rest of the season, but it’s certainly possible that we’ve painted with too broad-spectrum a brushing. Perhaps things are different if we specifically look at teams that had average DVOA projections and then way outplayed those projections in the first four weeks? I moved and looked at all teams with a projection between -5. 0% and 5.0%, going back to 2010. Here’s a look at the teams that most outplayed their projections in Weeks 1-4, and then what the final DVOA ratings were for those working teams.

Biggest Outperformance of an Median

Preseason DVOA Projection After Week 4, 2010 -2 021

Year Team Week 4

DVOA Rk Projection Gap Final

DVOA Rk 2019 SF 57.7% 1 -2. 0% 59.7% 29.0% 5 2017 KC 43.4% 1 3.8% 39.6% 10.9% 10 2021 ARI 33.2% 3 -1. 0% 34.3% — — 2012 SF 33.9% 2 4.2% 29.7% 30.2% 4 2016 MIN 27.4% 3 -0. 6% 28.0% 1.2% 18 2010 NYJ 30.7% 3 3.0% 27.8% 17.7% 7 2021 CLE 29.3% 4 2.5% 26.8% — — 2018 KC 24.1% 3 -2. 4% 26.5% 33.2% 1 2020 GB 25.2% 5 -0. 3% 25.5% 25.8% 3 2016 ATL 20.5% 5 -4. 8% 25.3% 23.9% 3 2013 IND 22.2% 5 -2. 5% 24.7% 2.7% 14 2016 DEN 24.7% 4 0.9% 23.8% 2.9% 15 2015 ATL 22.1% 5 -0. 1% 22.2% -1 2.3% 22 Simply includes crews with projection from -5. 0% to 5.0%.

What can we learn from this table? I went to see 13 squads and includes the 2015 Falcons to point out that sometimes hot early teams truly crash out. But overall … I guess it looks like these early strong musicians are more likely to keep at a high level all year than DAVE might otherwise indicate. Five of them were very strong for the rest of the year, six if you want to count the 2010 Jets. These teams had an average DAVE of 9.0% after four weeks, but their final actual DVOA averaged 15.0%. So for these teams, the early performance necessitate a little bit more than it did for the entire sample of squads from 2010 -2 019 that I used last year to create the brand-new DAVE rates. Perhaps that’s a good sign that the Cardinal can continue outperforming their mediocre preseason projection.

*****

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A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats , now necessitate registration to view. This is not a paywall! You simply need to register( free of charge) and then log in to the site to view these pages. While you’re at it, you can get a seven-day trial of FO+ and check out the FO+ features like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy football search tool, and selects against the spread.

*****

Here is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through four weeks of 2021, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average( DVOA) structure that breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average.( Explained further here .)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and concert indoors and consider all fumbles, maintained or lost, as equal value. Because it is early in the season, antagonist readjustments are currently at 40% strength. SPECIAL Squads DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium( warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive amounts represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which mixes our preseason predict with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a squad will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 70% preseason predict and 30% actual concert. It has still not adjusted for any backup quarterbacks.

To save people some time, delight use the following format for all complaints 😛 TAGEND

is clearly ranked because. is space better than this.

RK TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST WEEK TOTAL DAVE RANK W-L OFF. DVOA OFF. RANK DEF. DVOA DEF. RANK S.T. DVOA S.T. RANK

1 BUF 49.8% 6 22.4% 1 3-1 0.0% 17 -49.4% 1 0.5% 12

2 DAL 33.5% 9 13.9% 5 3-1 27.8% 3 -6.3% 10 -0.6% 17

3 ARI 33.2% 4 9.3% 10 4-0 17.1% 6 -11.4% 6 4.8% 3

4 CLE 29.3% 2 10.5% 9 3-1 8.6% 9 -16.4% 3 4.2% 5

5 LAR 24.9% 3 13.0% 6 3-1 29.4% 2 0.2% 20 -4.3% 28

6 BAL 21.0% 13 16.5% 4 3-1 7.2% 10 -5.0% 12 8.7% 2

7 NO 17.5% 8 8.5% 11 2-2 -0.7% 18 -18.4% 2 -0.1% 14

8 KC 16.4% 15 19.4% 2 2-2 41.1% 1 27.3% 32 2.6% 6

9 TB 16.0% 7 19.3% 3 3-1 18.6% 5 -0.1% 19 -2.7% 27

10 CIN 14.8% 11 -0. 6% 16 3-1 -1.5% 20 -11.6% 5 4.7% 4

11 SEA 13.4% 10 11.1% 8 2-2 24.0% 4 10.4% 25 -0.2% 15

12 CAR 10.0% 1 -4. 7% 20 3-1 -0.8% 19 -15.4% 4 -4.6% 30

13 SF 8.6% 12 7.7% 12 2-2 10.2% 7 -0.7% 16 -2.4% 24

14 LAC 8.2% 22 -3. 1% 19 3-1 6.7% 11 -6.5% 9 -5.0% 31

15 DEN 7.8% 5 4.5% 14 3-1 1.5% 15 -11.0% 7 -4.6% 29

16 MIN 4.1% 16 4.8% 13 1-3 2.2% 14 -0.9% 14 1.1% 9

Click here for the full table.

1

Vikings have had the hardest …~ ATAGEND

by Will Allen // Oct 05, 2021 – 4:34 pm

Vikings have had the hardest DVOA schedule so far, and their three losses have been in ot, by a missed 39 yard field goal at 0:00, and 14 -7.

“So you’re sayin’ there is a chance! “

-Lloyd Christmas

9

It’s so hard to get a handle …~ ATAGEND

by theslothook // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:43 pm

A bit schizophrenic .

by DIVISION // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:22 pm

When their offensive path …~ ATAGEND

by Will Allen // Oct 05, 2021 – 7:16 pm

DAVE was really down on the …~ ATAGEND

by mehllageman5 6 // Oct 05, 2021 – 4:43 pm

DAVE was really down on the 2010 Planes, more so than I thought it should have been. They had gone to the AFC Championship game on the back of their# 1 running game and# 1 defense its first year before, were starting a second year quarterback who should have improved( and did, somewhat ), and added a Pro Bowl cornerback( Antonio Cromartie) and Pro Bowl wide receiver( Santonio Holmes) while losing simply Kerry Rhodes( Pro Bowl security, so something ).

The only team on that list to not beat its projection was the 2015 Falcons. I have my doubts about the Cardinals, but I’m probably wrong to doubt them. Not as surprised with the Browns though.

6

To be fair that 2009 Jet-blacks …~ ATAGEND

by theslothook // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:37 pm

Where’s the logic ?

by DIVISION // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:26 pm

I think people are doubting …~ ATAGEND

by Kaepernicus // Oct 05, 2021 – 9:29 pm

I think people are doubting them based on history. This Cardinals team looks like the best since the 2015 Carson Palmer team to me. I would say the defense is probably a contact overrated because of the huge turnover number driven primarily by fumbles lost by the other team. Likewise the offense is a legitimate top 5 offense with deceptively low-toned turnovers due to fumble luck again. At worst some bad luck stirs them a 3-1 team with a top 5 offense and top 15 defense. That is still a really good team. The 49 ers are literally the opposite team where they have forced 5 fumbles and recovered none while fumbling 7 days and recovering only 2. The big-hearted reasons to presuppose the Cardinals are going to continue to be really good is the pass rush, 3rd down/ redzone offense, and Kyler playing out of his mind. If I had to bet on the season long strength of the Cardinal vs. the Browns I is very likely lean on the Cardinals because of the QB play. AZ has been very good and luck at the same time( fumbles) which normally stirs them a great fade play at this point. I would definitely bet the 49 ers at -5. 5 this week given the divisional characteristic, public exuberance, and the fact that AZ has a awful rushing protection. Long word though AZ looks like the best or second best team in the toughest division in the NFL.

3

Bills D

by Tutenkharnage // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:24 pm

They won’t stay this impressive all year, but I’m not frets too much about regression. IIRC, they were the best defense in the tournament last year after week 6, so this actually fits with who they were coming into the season, all the usual disclaimers about defensive variability aside.( Protections have been great for three or four years at a time. It’s possible we’re just about a year into seeing it happen again .)

4

Bills D regressed in 2020

by muscle4 17 // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:28 pm

They were# 2 in 2018 and# 6 in 2019, but slipped during the early stages of 2020 and turned it on late to intention #12, though# 6 in weighted defensive DVOA, IIRC.

5

tough sledding

by NYChem // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:37 pm

Wow, steelers have had the 2nd hardest planned so far, and the 3rd hardest going forward.

I guess things will help improve, if ever so slightly?

17

Gridiron Heights

by Bobman // Oct 05, 2021 – 7:04 pm

If you check out this week’s Gridiron Heights on Bleacher Report or Youtube, the Pitt SOS gets a brief mention. “Our SOS is number one, man! ” “Uh, analytics says that’s a bad thing, bro.”

20

Thanks for reminding me

by ImNewAroundThe … // Oct 05, 2021 – 8: 37 pm

that GH is back. Love it.

25

“I guess things will help improve …~ ATAGEND

by dbostedo // Oct 05, 2021 – 9:47 pm

“I guess things will improve, if ever so somewhat? “

I’m thinking that they are going to make more crews search really good, and make their schedule strength appear to be even tougher.* sigh*

7

Defense prevents committing them the projectile back

by bochner // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:38 pm

This week will be a good test. Somehow I don’t envision the Bills’ defense will prevent committing them the projectile back at KC. Sometimes I think we would be better off not looking at DVOA until at least Week 7. Though that would deprive us of a lot of good exchange. So far the Statutes have played the number 25, 13, 30, and 28 offense. KC has played against 22, 14, 4, and 6. That’s a world-wide of difference. The Chiefs will induce the Bills play defense. The big money will be on KC, but the squares will be all over Buffalo get a field goal. That said, I have a nice Buffalo to win Super Bowl ticket purchased in June and I’m not tearing it up–yet.

8

As 2007 indicated , not even …~ ATAGEND

by theslothook // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:42 pm

As 2007 evidenced , not even stomping your behavior to the all-time point differential record is a guarantee that you’re going to win the super bowl.

12

The difference

by Tutenkharnage // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:09 pm

Yes, the Bills played weak offenses. They also wholly vaporized them. They’ve let 44 phases on its first year, 7 of which came on a blocked punt, with another 7 coming on a l00000ng, wind-aided fluke of an onside kick. They also gave up a totally meaningless touchdown at the end of the WFT game. Overall, they’ve been about as reigning on protection as a squad could be over four games, even accounting for the weakness of the opposition.

The real test comes the coming week, as you told me. I still have visions of Tyreek Hill moving absolutely crazy in the AFCCG last year, plus Allen and McDermott coming up very small on the big-hearted stage, so I recognize the possibility that I’m going to end up disillusioned. But if there’s a squad that could keep the Chiefs to 28, this might be the one. Maybe it happens Sunday, perhaps it doesn’t. If it does, though, the Bills are going to win the 1 seed and represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year unless injuries destroy their season

16

That will be a bad defeat when all is said and done in January .

by DIVISION // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:29 pm

I have the Bills or Browns coming out of the AFC this year.

That said, I anticipate whomever stimulates it out of the gauntlet NFC will beat anyone from the AFC, whether it’s Cards, Rams or Bucs.

Josh Allen’s regression is concerning. I don’t watch too many Bills games, but these blowouts ought to have masking his inaccuracy.

I wish we knew why he’s lost his touch. The worst component is they haven’t played any good teams yet.

10

Bills DVOA

by jheidelberg // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:00 pm

Is there any comparable crew in DVOA history to the Bills at any point in the season week 4 and beyond? There extraordinary DVOA is entirely due to defense, if there are any comparable teams, what have they done going forward?

I meet the following chart of the 12 best DVOA defenses through 12 games, maybe there is some comparable squad or teams in there.

11

Bills absurdly easy schedule

by jheidelberg // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:08 pm

They have played the easiest schedule to date and their future schedule is also the easiest. Once they play the Chiefs next week, their future schedule will be even more so the easiest.

Their schedule includes their pathetic department, the pathetic AFC South, and thus, despite having to play KC, NO, and TB, they still have the easiest schedule.

This looks like a Patriots schedule of the Brady era.

13

The top defensive DVOA games …~ ATAGEND

by jheidelberg // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:16 pm

The top defensive DVOA plays ever comprising two Super Bowls, incredible!

There have been only 38 Super Bowls played in the DVOA era. I am estimating that we are approaching 10,000 games played in the Super Bowl era.

18

I’d be curious to know …~ ATAGEND

by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Oct 05, 2021 – 7:05 pm

I’d be curious to know whether the inverse situation – crews projected to have an average DAVE, that intent up with a significantly worse DVOA after 4 weeks – similarly were more likely to stay at a low-pitched performance tier than a 30/70 mixture of DVOA and DAVE would predict?

Intuitively, it seems likely to me that a significant performance variance is more likely to be – well, substantial – as a signal than more modest performance variance. That is, the greater the difference between actual early concert and DAVE, the more likely it is that DAVE got things wrong.

It wasn’t apparent to me, though, from the table of comparable squads to this year’s Cards, whether the week 4 blend of DVOA/ DAVE was more or less accurate than week 4 DVOA alone at projecting DVOA for weeks 5 to 16? In other words, I couldn’t tell how much the variance in final DVOA was a result of DVOA that was already “baked in” from concert for weeks 1-4. Maybe it’s not that simple because of opponent changes, which take time to crystalize. But if a squad you predicted to be average has a really good firstly 25% of a season, then even if they’re average the rest of the way, they’re going to look better than average at the end because of that early performance.

21

Curious … what was the …~ ATAGEND

by MJK // Oct 05, 2021 – 8: 41 pm

Curious … what was the single play VOA splits for NE-TB? TB strung together a lot of successful running plays, which VOA should like, but struggled to convert 3rd downs and high-pitched leverage situations. NE had a few good string together drives, but didn’t run at all and so necessarily hurled a lot of incompletes or short consummations. So I imagine that VOA probably envisioned TB played way better on average, and NE was “lucky” to be in it right at the end.

On the other hand, I pot the extending divide kindness NE … to my eye, Jones outplayed Brady. But I have subjective biases. I’m curious what the numbers say…

22

… Edit, I just recognized …~ ATAGEND

by MJK // Oct 05, 2021 – 8: 43 pm

BUF D

by TomC // Oct 05, 2021 – 9:34 pm

Does anyone think that KC will score fewer than 28 degrees this Sunday?

( And, in case it’s not obvious from that question, I reckon the 2021 Invoices D miscarries the eye test. Reminds me of the 2012 Carries, who likewise beat up on nasty crews and ran up ridiculous turnover amounts but—at least in this Bear fan’s opinion—weren’t truly that good .)

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