DVOA Week 4: Bills Move to No. 1 with Dominating Defense Aaron Schatz 05 Oct 2021, 04:06 pm
We have a new No. 1 team in DVOA this week, the Buffalo Bills, and they are No. 1 in DVOA by a hefty boundary after putting up one of the biggest games in DVOA history with their 40 -0 shellacking of Davis Mills and the Houston Texans. There’s a crack of over 16 percentage points between Buffalo and our No. 2 team right now, the Dallas Cowboys. The undefeated Arizona Cardinals are right behind in third place, followed by Cleveland, the Los Angeles Rams, and Baltimore.
But the Bills are the large-hearted narrative, and we’ve got a lot of fun data to share about the incredible defensive performance they put together on Sunday. Right now, with the current opponent changes, the Bills come out with -1 34.4% defensive DVOA for Sunday’s win. That would be the best defensive performance in a single play ever measured by DVOA, going all the way back to 1983.
OK, you are probably thinking, but that’s simply with early-season opponent changes. Regular readers know that early in the season, we don’t do our foe changes at full strength. Right now, they just at 40% strength because we don’t truly know yet how good squads are. Certainly once the opposing adjustments are stronger, Buffalo’s rating for this game will be less impressive, right?
Don’t be so sure. The foe accommodation for playing against Houston may not be as strong as you think. Some of that is due to the specifics of how our structure employments. The opposing accommodation will be based on how Houston’s offense plays for the entire season, and that will include a few plays of Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. But Davis Mills likewise may not be as bad as he searched on Sunday. Houston’s pass offense DVOA was -2. 0% against Carolina the week before, far from the worst in the league.
I was curious what would happen to Buffalo’s defensive rating for this game with opponent changes at full strength, so I moved a organize of DVOA ratings to those used readjustments. And it turns out Buffalo’s defensive concert in this game falls from the best ever to … still the best ever, only by a smaller amount! Buffalo would be at -1 27.2% DVOA with full opposing changes. Here’s a look at the best single defensive games in DVOA history. I’m listing Buffalo’s rating with the full opposing adjustment, but of course that rating is subject to change over the course of the entire season as we gather more data on both Houston and Houston’s other defensive opponents.
Top Single Games by Defensive DVOA, 1983 -2 021
Team Year Week Opp Score Opp Off Rk Def DVOA
BUF 2021 4 HOU 40 -0 30 -1 27.2%
CLE1 1989 1 PIT 51 -0 24 -1 26.2%
BAL 2000 SB NYG 34 -7 8 -1 20.9%
Cavity 1999 1 CLE 43 -0 26 -1 20.9%
PHI 1991 3 DAL 24 -0 4 -1 16.0%
TEN 2000 17 DAL 31 -0 24 -1 14.6%
NYJ 2009 17 CIN 37 -0 19 -1 13.7%
BUF 2004 14 CLE 37 -7 27 -1 12.0%
CHI 1985 SB NE 46 -1 0 11 -1 06.1%
DEN 1999 6 GB 31 -1 0 11 -1 03.9%
NYJ 2010 17 BUF 38 -7 26 -1 02.7%
NE 2004 10 BUF 29 -6 21 -1 02.5%
Buffalo’s defensive performance might be even more impressive if we only look at pass defense DVOA, although it is no longer the best game ever assessed. Buffalo’s pass defense DVOA is -2 08.4% with the current opponent readjustments and would be -2 04.7% with full adversary readjustments. Mills has only just been 87 yards on 21 moves that included four interceptions. He had a fumble on a bag which Houston recovered, plus Jordan Akins fumbled after a reception. Buffalo’s pass defense DVOA for this game is actually better than what the New Orleans Saints put up last year when they played against a Denver team that “havent had” real quarterback!
Top Single Games by Pass Defense DVOA, 1983 -2 021
Team Year Week Opp Score Opp Pass
Off Rk Pass Def
DVOA Main QB Cmp Att Yds TD INT Sk
NE 2009 6 TEN 59 -0 17 -2 34.5% K.Collins 2 14 -7 0 2 0 NYJ 2009 17 CIN 37 -0 15 -2 07.5% C.Palmer/J.T.O’Sullivan 4 19 31 0 1 3 BUF 2021 4 HOU 40 -0 28 -2 04.7% D.Mills 11 21 87 0 4 3 NO 2020 12 Lair 31 -3 31 -2 00.9% K.Hinton 1 9 13 0 2 1 Vehicle 2010 5 CHI 23 -6( L) 26 -1 85.7% T.Collins 8 19 51 0 4 3 GB 1987 10 SEA 24 -1 3( L) 13 -1 83.3% D.Krieg 9 15 105 0 3 3 TEN 2000 17 DAL 31 -0 25 -1 81.5% A.Wright 5 20 35 0 2 4 GB 2006 17 CHI 26 -7 27 -1 76.6% B.Griese/R.Grossman 8 28 194 1 5 2 TB 2007 15 ATL 37 -3 26 -1 76.4% C.Redman 4 15 34 0 2 1 MIA 1983 4 KC 14 -6 12 -1 71.8% B.Kenney 10 22 105 0 4 3 PHI 1991 3 DAL 24 -0 4 -1 67.8% T.Aikman 11 25 112 0 3 11 DAL 2003 15 WAS 27 -0 19 -1 67.5% T.Hasselbeck 7 27 59 0 4 1
As an aside, we could also look at these stats from Houston’s perspective and get similar rosters, but today I wanted to concentrate on the Bills defense. It will be fun to see where this game stands from Houston’s perspective when we get to the end of its first year and we know how well Buffalo’s defense has played against other opponents.
Also, how crazy is it that two of the teams with the best pass defense ever recorded in a game lost those games?
Here’s another index. Buffalo’s defensive performance was so strong against Houston that the Bills likewise break into the list of the ten best overall games in DVOA history. Once again, the ratings I’m listing here are the ratings with full foe accommodations utilized, subject to change over the rest of the season.
Top Single Games by Total DVOA, 1983 -2 021
Team Year Week Opp Score Opp Rk Off Def ST Total
SF 1993 DIV NYG 44 -3 7 67.3% -78.2% 10.9% 156.4% NO 2020 9 TB 38 -3 2 50.2% -96.7% 6.7% 153.5% CLE1 1989 1 PIT 51 -0 20 15.7% -126.2% 9.2% 151.1% NYG 1986 DIV SF 49 -3 2 66.5% -73.0% 10.0% 149.4% WAS 1991 1 DET 45 -0 15 58.6% -67.7% 20.7% 147.1% PIT 1999 1 CLE 43 -0 31 20.6% -120.9% 5.5% 147.0% MIN 1987 WC NO 44 -1 0 2 15.7% -102.0% 27.1% 144.9% BUF 2021 4 HOU 40 -0 29 9.2% -127.2% 5.7% 142.1% WAS 1983 DIV LARM 51 -7 6 55.5% -59.7% 25.4% 140.7% DET 1983 13 PIT 45 -3 14 31.9% -77.0% 30.4% 139.4% CAR 2005 WC NYG 23 -0 10 34.8% -92.3% 11.7% 138.8% PHI 1994 5 SF 40 -8 3 60.8% -73.9% 3.8% 138.5% NE 2008 16 ARI 47 -7 21 40.9% -74.6% 22.6% 138.0% ATL 2002 12 CAR 41 -0 25 47.9% -91.5% -1. 8% 137.6% Automobile 2015 CCG ARI 49 -1 5 2 57.1% -65.3% 12.8% 135.1% BAL 2019 12 LAR 45 -6 12 67.4% -58.7% 8.8% 134.9% SEA 2012 14 ARI 58 -0 24 56.2% -63.0% 15.5% 134.7% NE 2004 10 BUF 29 -6 3 40.0% -102.5% -8. 5% 134.0% KC 2002 13 ARI 49 -0 31 49.1% -71.6% 12.5% 133.2% NE 2009 6 TEN 59 -0 22 58.0% -80.6% -5. 4% 133.2%
When you have a game this strong and it counts as one of only four games in the current sample, it’s no surprise to see the team involved moving into the No. 1 place in DVOA overall. The surprise is likely to be the route that Buffalo’s defense is so outplaying its offense so far this season. The Bills offense ranks simply 16 th in DVOA through four weeks, with positive ratings only in Weeks 3 and 4. Buffalo is second in the tournament in scoring because the defense keeps putting the offense in great field point. Buffalo starts its average offensive drive at the 35.9 -yard line, the best figure in the league by a signficant perimeter. The Bills are also second in the tournament with 46 offensive drives because the defense retains get them the ball back.
Although Week 4 was by far their best game, the Buffalo defense has been better than average in all four plays so far this season, and so they also have one of the most wonderful defenses ever tracked through four games of the season.
Best Defensive DVOA
Through 4 Games, 1983 -2 021
Year Team W-L DVOA 1984 CHI 3-1 -52.4% 2019 NE 4-0 -50.3% 2021 BUF 3-1 -49.4% 1997 SF 3-1 -46.8% 2008 BAL 2-2 -45.9% 2019 SF 4-0 -45.4% 1991 PHI 3-1 -42.6% 1996 GB 3-1 -40.3% 1985 DAL 3-1 -36.7% 1989 CLE1 3-1 -36.6% 2011 BAL 3-1 -36.1% 1991 NO 4-0 -36.0%
What’s most remarkable may not be how good the Buffalo defense has been through four games but how big the gap is between Buffalo and the rest of the tournament. Right now, the No. 2 protection in DVOA is New Orleans — surprising given that Daniel Jones produced the league in passing DYAR the coming week playing against the Saints. But the Saints were good enough in their first three games, specially against the Packers in Week 1, to still rank second in defensive DVOA. The Saints are at -1 8.4% defensive DVOA right now. This intends the gap between the Bills and the Saints is more than 30 percentage points! As you can probably imagine, this is the largest gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 protection ever recorded after four weeks of a season.
Largest Gap Between Top 2 Protections After Week 4, 1983 -2 021
Year No. 1 Def DVOA No. 2 Def DVOA Gap
2021 BUF -4 9.4% NO -1 8.4% 31.0% 1984 CHI -5 2.4% SEA -2 8.7% 23.7% 2003 TB -4 4.3% IND -2 1.4% 22.9% 1997 SF -4 6.8% STL -2 6.8% 20.0% 2008 BAL -4 9.2% TEN -3 2.8% 16.4%
Now, here’s the downside for Buffalo: we know that defensive concert tends to be more variable than offensive concert, and the influence of regression to the mean is stronger. If we want a reminder that great defensive concert doesn’t ever continue for the entire season, we only have to remember back to the New England Patriots of two years ago. It’s possible that our opposing adjustments only aren’t correcting enough for the value of playing against a series of young and/ or backup quarterbacks. It would be preferable for the Bills if their offense was ranked first and their protection was 16 th. Nonetheless, based on our preseason projections and how good their offense was last year, there’s a strong chance that the Buffalo offense will be better than this for the rest of the season. So even if the defense does is coming to earth — and it will — the Bills are still set up to be a top Super Bowl contender.
This all sets up for an awesome Sunday night game this weekend, because our best defense is going to be playing our best offense, the Kansas City Chiefs. Although the Chiefs’ offense is not quite as impressive as the Bills defense right now, it’s still very impressive. The Chiefs are No. 1 on offense at 41.1%, with no other offense above 30%. Kansas City has the 14 th-best offense we’ve ever tracked through four games. The question is that their protection is almost as bad as the offense is good, readily grading dead last-place still further this season.
How Good Is Arizona?
The Bills are also now No. 1 in our DAVE ratings which combination early-season DVOA with the preseason projections. Nonetheless, even after four weeks, the DAVE ratings are still 70% based on those preseason projections, so the next two teams are the two teams we had on top of our preseason forecast, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Arizona devotees might be annoyed to see the Cardinals down at No. 10 in DAVE even though they are the final unbeaten team in the NFL this season. Our preseason projection for the Cardinals had them as a league-average team, or close to it. How likely is it that we were totally wrong about them?
The ratio of DVOA to projection used in DAVE is based on looking at what rate best predicts DVOA over the rest of the season, but it’s certainly possible that we’ve painted with too broad-spectrum a brushing. Perhaps things are different if we specifically look at teams that had average DVOA projections and then way outplayed those projections in the first four weeks? I moved and looked at all teams with a projection between -5. 0% and 5.0%, going back to 2010. Here’s a look at the teams that most outplayed their projections in Weeks 1-4, and then what the final DVOA ratings were for those working teams.
Biggest Outperformance of an Median
Preseason DVOA Projection After Week 4, 2010 -2 021
Year Team Week 4
DVOA Rk Projection Gap Final
DVOA Rk 2019 SF 57.7% 1 -2. 0% 59.7% 29.0% 5 2017 KC 43.4% 1 3.8% 39.6% 10.9% 10 2021 ARI 33.2% 3 -1. 0% 34.3% — — 2012 SF 33.9% 2 4.2% 29.7% 30.2% 4 2016 MIN 27.4% 3 -0. 6% 28.0% 1.2% 18 2010 NYJ 30.7% 3 3.0% 27.8% 17.7% 7 2021 CLE 29.3% 4 2.5% 26.8% — — 2018 KC 24.1% 3 -2. 4% 26.5% 33.2% 1 2020 GB 25.2% 5 -0. 3% 25.5% 25.8% 3 2016 ATL 20.5% 5 -4. 8% 25.3% 23.9% 3 2013 IND 22.2% 5 -2. 5% 24.7% 2.7% 14 2016 DEN 24.7% 4 0.9% 23.8% 2.9% 15 2015 ATL 22.1% 5 -0. 1% 22.2% -1 2.3% 22 Simply includes crews with projection from -5. 0% to 5.0%.
What can we learn from this table? I went to see 13 squads and includes the 2015 Falcons to point out that sometimes hot early teams truly crash out. But overall … I guess it looks like these early strong musicians are more likely to keep at a high level all year than DAVE might otherwise indicate. Five of them were very strong for the rest of the year, six if you want to count the 2010 Jets. These teams had an average DAVE of 9.0% after four weeks, but their final actual DVOA averaged 15.0%. So for these teams, the early performance necessitate a little bit more than it did for the entire sample of squads from 2010 -2 019 that I used last year to create the brand-new DAVE rates. Perhaps that’s a good sign that the Cardinal can continue outperforming their mediocre preseason projection.
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Here is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through four weeks of 2021, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average( DVOA) structure that breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average.( Explained further here .)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and concert indoors and consider all fumbles, maintained or lost, as equal value. Because it is early in the season, antagonist readjustments are currently at 40% strength. SPECIAL Squads DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium( warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive amounts represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
DAVE is a formula which mixes our preseason predict with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a squad will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 70% preseason predict and 30% actual concert. It has still not adjusted for any backup quarterbacks.
To save people some time, delight use the following format for all complaints 😛 TAGEND
is clearly ranked because. is space better than this.
RK TEAM TOTAL
DVOA LAST WEEK TOTAL DAVE RANK W-L OFF. DVOA OFF. RANK DEF. DVOA DEF. RANK S.T. DVOA S.T. RANK
1 BUF 49.8% 6 22.4% 1 3-1 0.0% 17 -49.4% 1 0.5% 12
2 DAL 33.5% 9 13.9% 5 3-1 27.8% 3 -6.3% 10 -0.6% 17
3 ARI 33.2% 4 9.3% 10 4-0 17.1% 6 -11.4% 6 4.8% 3
4 CLE 29.3% 2 10.5% 9 3-1 8.6% 9 -16.4% 3 4.2% 5
5 LAR 24.9% 3 13.0% 6 3-1 29.4% 2 0.2% 20 -4.3% 28
6 BAL 21.0% 13 16.5% 4 3-1 7.2% 10 -5.0% 12 8.7% 2
7 NO 17.5% 8 8.5% 11 2-2 -0.7% 18 -18.4% 2 -0.1% 14
8 KC 16.4% 15 19.4% 2 2-2 41.1% 1 27.3% 32 2.6% 6
9 TB 16.0% 7 19.3% 3 3-1 18.6% 5 -0.1% 19 -2.7% 27
10 CIN 14.8% 11 -0. 6% 16 3-1 -1.5% 20 -11.6% 5 4.7% 4
11 SEA 13.4% 10 11.1% 8 2-2 24.0% 4 10.4% 25 -0.2% 15
12 CAR 10.0% 1 -4. 7% 20 3-1 -0.8% 19 -15.4% 4 -4.6% 30
13 SF 8.6% 12 7.7% 12 2-2 10.2% 7 -0.7% 16 -2.4% 24
14 LAC 8.2% 22 -3. 1% 19 3-1 6.7% 11 -6.5% 9 -5.0% 31
15 DEN 7.8% 5 4.5% 14 3-1 1.5% 15 -11.0% 7 -4.6% 29
16 MIN 4.1% 16 4.8% 13 1-3 2.2% 14 -0.9% 14 1.1% 9
Click here for the full table.
1
Vikings have had the hardest …~ ATAGEND
by Will Allen // Oct 05, 2021 – 4:34 pm
Vikings have had the hardest DVOA schedule so far, and their three losses have been in ot, by a missed 39 yard field goal at 0:00, and 14 -7.
“So you’re sayin’ there is a chance! “
-Lloyd Christmas
9
It’s so hard to get a handle …~ ATAGEND
by theslothook // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:43 pm
In reply to Vikings have had the hardest …~ ATAGEND by Will Allen
It’s so hard to get a handle on this Vikings team, especially their offense.
14
by DIVISION // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:22 pm
In reply to It’s so hard to get a handle …~ ATAGEND by theslothook
When I was watching the Vikings/ Hawks play, it seemed like two teams playing mirror image of themselves.
Both squads are boom or bust.
The Vikings are so dependent on Cousins having a clean pocket that their offense can search astonishing or horrible depending on the adversary. It’s not all that different from years past. You interpreted what the Browns did.
The Vikings will have a shot at the NFC North because the Packers don’t have a great defensive front and that’s the key to beating the Vikings.
19
When their offensive path …~ ATAGEND
by Will Allen // Oct 05, 2021 – 7:16 pm
In reply to It’s so hard to get a handle …~ ATAGEND by theslothook
When their offensive pipeline doesn’t get a can opened on them, they are a good squad. That can being opened is not a low likelihood event when playing back a good defensive front, to engage in a bit of understatement.
2
DAVE was really down on the …~ ATAGEND
by mehllageman5 6 // Oct 05, 2021 – 4:43 pm
DAVE was really down on the 2010 Planes, more so than I thought it should have been. They had gone to the AFC Championship game on the back of their# 1 running game and# 1 defense its first year before, were starting a second year quarterback who should have improved( and did, somewhat ), and added a Pro Bowl cornerback( Antonio Cromartie) and Pro Bowl wide receiver( Santonio Holmes) while losing simply Kerry Rhodes( Pro Bowl security, so something ).
The only team on that list to not beat its projection was the 2015 Falcons. I have my doubts about the Cardinals, but I’m probably wrong to doubt them. Not as surprised with the Browns though.
6
To be fair that 2009 Jet-blacks …~ ATAGEND
by theslothook // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:37 pm
In reply to DAVE was really down on the …~ ATAGEND by mehllageman5 6
To be fair that 2009 Planes crew was pretty shortcoming and got to the playoffs with the help of foes missing field goals, the Colts resting starters in the last half( and plummeting tds along the way ), and the Bengals altogether laying down for that week 17 play( if ever a week 17 play should have an asterisk next to it ).
To their credit, the protection stifled the perpetually disappointing Marvin Lewis led Bengals, and Chargers( once again benefitting from special squads woes ).
And well I know I’m sounding fairly dismissive, but I actually have a soft spot in my nerve for the Rex Ryan lead Jets who did about as well as they could devoted who their QB was.
I likewise maintained Rex Ryan the chief coach-and-four in quite a bit of esteem. I know he does himself 0 favors in news conference and is shortcoming when it comes to decision making, but he’s one of the few defensive coach-and-fours that raises the flooring of his protections and gets a lot of mileage out of protections with severe imperfections in pass hastening.
15
by DIVISION // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:26 pm
In reply to DAVE was really down on the …~ ATAGEND by mehllageman5 6
The Brown have a solid running game and elite defense. Their weak link is Baker Mayfield.
The Cards are more balance on offense and defense than Cleveland, referenced by DVOA. Likewise, Kyler is world’s better than Baker even though they had the same offense in college. Kyler has already beaten Baker in the pros.
Why would you doubt Zona’s sustainability rather than Cleveland’s?
23
I think people are doubting …~ ATAGEND
by Kaepernicus // Oct 05, 2021 – 9:29 pm
In reply to Where’s the logic ? by DIVISION
I think people are doubting them based on history. This Cardinals team looks like the best since the 2015 Carson Palmer team to me. I would say the defense is probably a contact overrated because of the huge turnover number driven primarily by fumbles lost by the other team. Likewise the offense is a legitimate top 5 offense with deceptively low-toned turnovers due to fumble luck again. At worst some bad luck stirs them a 3-1 team with a top 5 offense and top 15 defense. That is still a really good team. The 49 ers are literally the opposite team where they have forced 5 fumbles and recovered none while fumbling 7 days and recovering only 2. The big-hearted reasons to presuppose the Cardinals are going to continue to be really good is the pass rush, 3rd down/ redzone offense, and Kyler playing out of his mind. If I had to bet on the season long strength of the Cardinal vs. the Browns I is very likely lean on the Cardinals because of the QB play. AZ has been very good and luck at the same time( fumbles) which normally stirs them a great fade play at this point. I would definitely bet the 49 ers at -5. 5 this week given the divisional characteristic, public exuberance, and the fact that AZ has a awful rushing protection. Long word though AZ looks like the best or second best team in the toughest division in the NFL.
3
by Tutenkharnage // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:24 pm
They won’t stay this impressive all year, but I’m not frets too much about regression. IIRC, they were the best defense in the tournament last year after week 6, so this actually fits with who they were coming into the season, all the usual disclaimers about defensive variability aside.( Protections have been great for three or four years at a time. It’s possible we’re just about a year into seeing it happen again .)
4
by muscle4 17 // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:28 pm
In reply to Bills D by Tutenkharnage
They were# 2 in 2018 and# 6 in 2019, but slipped during the early stages of 2020 and turned it on late to intention #12, though# 6 in weighted defensive DVOA, IIRC.
5
by NYChem // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:37 pm
Wow, steelers have had the 2nd hardest planned so far, and the 3rd hardest going forward.
I guess things will help improve, if ever so slightly?
17
by Bobman // Oct 05, 2021 – 7:04 pm
In reply to tough sledding by NYChem
If you check out this week’s Gridiron Heights on Bleacher Report or Youtube, the Pitt SOS gets a brief mention. “Our SOS is number one, man! ” “Uh, analytics says that’s a bad thing, bro.”
20
by ImNewAroundThe … // Oct 05, 2021 – 8: 37 pm
In reply to Gridiron Heights by Bobman
that GH is back. Love it.
25
“I guess things will help improve …~ ATAGEND
by dbostedo // Oct 05, 2021 – 9:47 pm
In reply to tough sledding by NYChem
“I guess things will improve, if ever so somewhat? “
I’m thinking that they are going to make more crews search really good, and make their schedule strength appear to be even tougher.* sigh*
7
Defense prevents committing them the projectile back
by bochner // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:38 pm
This week will be a good test. Somehow I don’t envision the Bills’ defense will prevent committing them the projectile back at KC. Sometimes I think we would be better off not looking at DVOA until at least Week 7. Though that would deprive us of a lot of good exchange. So far the Statutes have played the number 25, 13, 30, and 28 offense. KC has played against 22, 14, 4, and 6. That’s a world-wide of difference. The Chiefs will induce the Bills play defense. The big money will be on KC, but the squares will be all over Buffalo get a field goal. That said, I have a nice Buffalo to win Super Bowl ticket purchased in June and I’m not tearing it up–yet.
8
As 2007 indicated , not even …~ ATAGEND
by theslothook // Oct 05, 2021 – 5:42 pm
In reply to Defense continues devoting them the ball back by bochner
As 2007 evidenced , not even stomping your behavior to the all-time point differential record is a guarantee that you’re going to win the super bowl.
12
by Tutenkharnage // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:09 pm
In reply to Defense keeps imparting them the projectile back by bochner
Yes, the Bills played weak offenses. They also wholly vaporized them. They’ve let 44 phases on its first year, 7 of which came on a blocked punt, with another 7 coming on a l00000ng, wind-aided fluke of an onside kick. They also gave up a totally meaningless touchdown at the end of the WFT game. Overall, they’ve been about as reigning on protection as a squad could be over four games, even accounting for the weakness of the opposition.
The real test comes the coming week, as you told me. I still have visions of Tyreek Hill moving absolutely crazy in the AFCCG last year, plus Allen and McDermott coming up very small on the big-hearted stage, so I recognize the possibility that I’m going to end up disillusioned. But if there’s a squad that could keep the Chiefs to 28, this might be the one. Maybe it happens Sunday, perhaps it doesn’t. If it does, though, the Bills are going to win the 1 seed and represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year unless injuries destroy their season
16
That will be a bad defeat when all is said and done in January .
by DIVISION // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:29 pm
In reply to Defense keeps committing them the projectile back by bochner
I have the Bills or Browns coming out of the AFC this year.
That said, I anticipate whomever stimulates it out of the gauntlet NFC will beat anyone from the AFC, whether it’s Cards, Rams or Bucs.
Josh Allen’s regression is concerning. I don’t watch too many Bills games, but these blowouts ought to have masking his inaccuracy.
I wish we knew why he’s lost his touch. The worst component is they haven’t played any good teams yet.
10
by jheidelberg // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:00 pm
Is there any comparable crew in DVOA history to the Bills at any point in the season week 4 and beyond? There extraordinary DVOA is entirely due to defense, if there are any comparable teams, what have they done going forward?
I meet the following chart of the 12 best DVOA defenses through 12 games, maybe there is some comparable squad or teams in there.
11
by jheidelberg // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:08 pm
They have played the easiest schedule to date and their future schedule is also the easiest. Once they play the Chiefs next week, their future schedule will be even more so the easiest.
Their schedule includes their pathetic department, the pathetic AFC South, and thus, despite having to play KC, NO, and TB, they still have the easiest schedule.
This looks like a Patriots schedule of the Brady era.
13
The top defensive DVOA games …~ ATAGEND
by jheidelberg // Oct 05, 2021 – 6:16 pm
The top defensive DVOA plays ever comprising two Super Bowls, incredible!
There have been only 38 Super Bowls played in the DVOA era. I am estimating that we are approaching 10,000 games played in the Super Bowl era.
18
I’d be curious to know …~ ATAGEND
by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Oct 05, 2021 – 7:05 pm
I’d be curious to know whether the inverse situation – crews projected to have an average DAVE, that intent up with a significantly worse DVOA after 4 weeks – similarly were more likely to stay at a low-pitched performance tier than a 30/70 mixture of DVOA and DAVE would predict?
Intuitively, it seems likely to me that a significant performance variance is more likely to be – well, substantial – as a signal than more modest performance variance. That is, the greater the difference between actual early concert and DAVE, the more likely it is that DAVE got things wrong.
It wasn’t apparent to me, though, from the table of comparable squads to this year’s Cards, whether the week 4 blend of DVOA/ DAVE was more or less accurate than week 4 DVOA alone at projecting DVOA for weeks 5 to 16? In other words, I couldn’t tell how much the variance in final DVOA was a result of DVOA that was already “baked in” from concert for weeks 1-4. Maybe it’s not that simple because of opponent changes, which take time to crystalize. But if a squad you predicted to be average has a really good firstly 25% of a season, then even if they’re average the rest of the way, they’re going to look better than average at the end because of that early performance.
21
Curious … what was the …~ ATAGEND
by MJK // Oct 05, 2021 – 8: 41 pm
Curious … what was the single play VOA splits for NE-TB? TB strung together a lot of successful running plays, which VOA should like, but struggled to convert 3rd downs and high-pitched leverage situations. NE had a few good string together drives, but didn’t run at all and so necessarily hurled a lot of incompletes or short consummations. So I imagine that VOA probably envisioned TB played way better on average, and NE was “lucky” to be in it right at the end.
On the other hand, I pot the extending divide kindness NE … to my eye, Jones outplayed Brady. But I have subjective biases. I’m curious what the numbers say…
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… Edit, I just recognized …~ ATAGEND
by MJK // Oct 05, 2021 – 8: 43 pm
In reply to Curious … what was the …~ ATAGEND by MJK
… Edit, I only “ve learned that” as a FO+ subscriber, I can access the single game DVOA. Looks like it conceives NE outplayed TB by quite a bit, especially on defense, and that TB’s special crews was terrible.
I’m still curious about the pass versus led VOA separates. Is that in a table somewhere, or can you tell us?
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by TomC // Oct 05, 2021 – 9:34 pm
Does anyone think that KC will score fewer than 28 degrees this Sunday?
( And, in case it’s not obvious from that question, I reckon the 2021 Invoices D miscarries the eye test. Reminds me of the 2012 Carries, who likewise beat up on nasty crews and ran up ridiculous turnover amounts but—at least in this Bear fan’s opinion—weren’t truly that good .)
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